If anyone knows a little about the United State's political system
will know that Trump - although at the face of it seems to be
anti-establishment - will have to work with the establishment to further his
mission.
Every nominee
for the Presidency has always spoken of the candour of change, and how there
will be a 'transformation'. Each had his own slogan, this time it was Trump's
'make America great again'. But the reality is altogether different. When the
presidents reach the White House, they realise what they are up against.
Establishment
The USA, despite it being developed as a federal system and wont
of a small state, the state's apparatus is large, one of the largest in the
world. There are many agencies, each with their own agenda to continue to
prevail the status quo.
The security agencies have a scepticism with a rhetoric that
doomsday is approaching. This has been the case since the cold war, and has not
changed, despite the "threat" changing. Trump and these agencies,
which include the NSA, CIA, FBI, Homeland - and many hundreds more, have a lot
of the same perceptions, so here there will not be much problems.
Trump's views on foreign policy - especially dealing with the
Middle East - have surprisingly been very rational, and a complete opposite
approach on the current view the State Department and CIA have. In regards to
Syria, Trump believes in supporting Assad and bringing the civil war to a
close. I believe the Obama Administration were already doing a quasi-version of
this, however, Trump will be doing this on a full scale and very publicly. He
will face many problems - less in the rest of the world - but more with his
neighbours in the Americas. The Central and Latin American states will be the
focal point of this next president, (with outlook on securing broken relations
in other parts of the world) however, this has been a shift in the paradigm in
the last year in the Obama regime - with the renewed relations with Cuba. The way he will deal with China will show if he is fit to run the Office. The
rhetoric of 'axis of evil' states was still pursued by President Obama, he just
didn't use the term. So, will Trump be able to change this? I doubt it.
Rhetoric
Trump's campaign was based around stereotypes, bigotry, racism and
Islamaphobia to name but a few. This ruthlessness of his campaign has created a
divided America. In one way he has helped and destroyed democracy, he has
bought forward those disenfranchised - traditionally 'white' - voters who had
enough of the establishment. But, these voters have a specific idealised
version of how they see USA to be (segregated). Attacks on minorities and
people of 'colour' (I don't like this term) have increased, and has been
directly attributed to his rhetotic.
Islamaphobic Trumpism
Trump's 'complete ban on Muslims' entering the USA, and his many
thousands of remarks against Muslims and Islam have many American Muslims - but
Muslims globally - perplexed; what does a Trump presidency mean for us?
Simply put, not a lot will change politically. Socially, his
rhetoric will cause an increase in violence and hysteria from the extreme
far-right in the USA.
Trump cannot make dramatic changes, as the establishment will
stand against him. So, his policies of dividing the nation along race and
religious lines, will succumb. He is a President! His job is to lead his nation, not his voters or supporters. He
must be fair, just and tolerant of others, otherwise all the fairs that the
security agencies and military have regarding him will come true.
Second Term
For him to be re-elected for a second term, he will be placed
under more scrutiny, on whether he will have delivered all he claimed to have
said. It will not be justified for him to state that the establishment stood against me – whether they did or did not,
because in the end, he has his own volition. If the case that the establishment
did prevent him from doing the work he wanted to do, he will be using executive
orders to push policies through. Regardless of this, he may be a president who
will use the most executive orders.
To be re-elected he must make sure that the country as a whole
supports him, across the board. He will not be re-elected in the same way
again. He now has to prove himself. But
I do not think he will run for a second term, this will be dependent if he can
deliver on the many bold claims he
made. So, do minorities have to be fearful? The reality is not politically, but
socially – more they should fear the effect his rhetoric has on people.
Conclusion
Each president that came with 'big' talks of change, only make a
small affect on the system, because despite the President being the most
'powerful' person within the USA’s constitutional system, he (we can't use the
feminine pronoun yet) will leave Office after 4/8 years, yet the agencies do
not change for decades. It is these agencies that provide the policies,
they create stable policies that the country adheres to nationally and
internationally.
But, the establishment is in need of a shake up, and there are
many within that want change. The question is will they change. This is a long
debate for another article.
This may be the first time that a
celebrity has become the head of a state. Trump has created so much division
and debate – not just in the USA, but across the world. Many people fear him, many
see him as a saviour, but the reality is, he’s just another president with a
lot of rhetoric, but will produce little. We only need to look at Obama to see
this.
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